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Maxwell Ratings: Latest Georgia high school football state champion projections

By on November 26, 2013 4:30 pm

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Here are the latest Maxwell ratings used to project this year’s Georgia high school football state champions via the Atlanta Journal-Constitution:

The Maxwell ratings were used to simulate this year’s playoffs 1 million times for each of the classifications.  Each team is shown with it rating,  class ranking, strength of its remaining draw, average depth advanced to, and number of times winning the state championship out of the 1 million simulations.  Home advantage is factored into the next round of the playoffs with future rounds simulated at neutral sites.
Each region is also presented as well as the most common semifinal and championship matchups.
AAAAAA
- Despite the loss of Peachtree Ridge, Region 7 continues to beat the remainder of the field in the AAAAAA playoff simulation with the top three teams in terms of championship odds and an 81.1% of boasting the eventual winner.  Collins Hill displaces North Gwinnett at the top of the AAAAAA ratings and pushes past Norcross to the top of the playoff simulation in AAAAAA, winning the title 29.6% of the time.  However, despite the shift, there is still little difference between the three Region 7 teams.
- Four of the remaining five non-Region 7 teams have a greater than 1% chance of winning the title, led by Colquitt County, with an 11.9% chance.  When Colquitt County’s chances are combined with Lowndes, Region 1 has a 13.2% chance of winning the title.
Most Common Matchups:
Semifinals
Norcross – Colquitt County, 629,851 times
North Gwinnett – Collins Hill, 582,630 times
Final
Collins Hill –Norcross, 268,865 times
Team Rank Rating Draw Depth Wins
Collins Hill 1 95.08 87.34 3.6 296,437
Norcross 3 93.17 85.7 3.67 278,786
North Gwinnett 2 94.74 87.77 3.33 236,591
Colquitt County 4 87.65 86.2 3.21 118,850
Hillgrove 5 84.95 91.86 2.43 37,307
Lowndes 12 79.03 91.04 2.26 13,221
McEachern 9 80.53 92.19 2.23 12,864
Dacula 15 74.63 90.54 2.28 5,944
Region Wins
7 – AAAAAA 811,814
1 – AAAAAA 132,071
4 – AAAAAA 50,171
8 – AAAAAA 5,944
AAAAA
- Gainesville’s strong outing against South Paulding put them back on top of the AAAAA ratings and playoff simulation, now with a 39.1% chance of capturing the title.
- Creekside trails Gainesville by only 1 point in the ratings, but has a tougher remaining draw by 4.51 points.  Still, they enjoy a healthy 24.1% chance of winning the title.
- Seven of the eight remaining teams have better than 25 to 1 odds.
- Although a Gainesville-Tucker semifinal is most likely, there is a 40.0% chance Gainesville and Ware County will play a rematch of last year’s championship game in the semifinals.
Most Common Matchups:
Semifinals
Gainesville – Tucker, 496,359 times
Creekside – Kell, 385,295 time
Final
Gainesville – Creekside, 272,634 times
Team Rank Rating Draw Depth Wins
Gainesville 1 82.92 71.81 3.92 391,212
Creekside 2 81.91 76.32 3.31 240,560
Kell 3 75.45 77 2.95 98,833
Tucker 5 74.8 77.45 2.83 84,294
North Paulding 4 75.33 78.51 2.64 77,801
Ware County 6 73.76 77.8 2.66 60,255
Warner Robins 7 72.16 77.81 2.56 42,631
Mundy’s Mill 16 62.42 78.95 2.13 4,414
Region Wins
8 – AAAAA 391,212
4 – AAAAA 244,974
7 – AAAAA 98,833
6 – AAAAA 84,294
5 – AAAAA 77,801
3 – AAAAA 60,255
2 – AAAAA 42,631
AAAA
- No change at the top of the AAAA playoff simulation, where Sandy Creek wins the championship 50.1% of the time.  However, Sandy Creek’s Region 5 rival, Carrollton, and Sandy Creek’s next opponent, Griffin, each have a greater than 10% chance to win as well.
- Sandy Creek, Carrollton, and Alexander combine to give Region 5 an 83.0% chance of boasting the eventual winner.
- With Monroe Area behind them, Carrollton now has the easiest remaining draw.
Most Common Matchups:
Semifinals
Sandy Creek – Wayne County, 463,226 times
Carrollton – Marist, 443,502 times
Final
Sandy Creek – Carrollton, 532,386 times
Team Rank Rating Draw Depth Wins
Sandy Creek 1 93.64 77.05 3.92 501,193
Carrollton 2 86.77 73.99 3.98 326,225
Griffin 3 85.02 79.92 2.65 133,709
Marist 5 68.1 80.36 2.6 11,309
Burke County 7 66.92 80.75 2.59 9,416
Wayne County 9 65.41 78.91 2.69 8,738
Stockbridge 6 67.58 83.4 2.18 7,099
Alexander 10 60.84 79.84 2.38 2,311
Region Wins
5 – AAAA 829,729
4 – AAAA 140,808
3 – AAAA 18,154
6 – AAAA 11,309
AAA
- Buford’s rating received a boost from Gainesville’s strong playoff performance, in turn pushing their chances of winning the AAA title to 71.2%.  Washington County, with a 27.2% chance of being crowned champion, still remains the only other team with more than a token chance.  There is an 80.1% chance they will face each other in the title game.
- Having dispatched Woodward Academy, Buford now has the easiest remaining draw, which is five points lighter than Washington County’s.
- If Buford were to replace Dacula in the AAAAAA bracket, they would have a 34.1% chance of winning the championship.  If they were to replace Mundy’s Mill in the AAAAA bracket, they would have a 67.3% chance of winning the championship.  If they were to replace Alexander in the AAAA bracket, they would have a 53.7% chance to win the championship.
- For the third week in a row, AAA has the team with the lowest playoff odds of any GHSA team in any classification.  In 1,000,000 simulations, Central (Carrollton) won the simulation championship 353 times.  Their most likely path to the title would be through Ringgold, Washington County, and Buford.
- There is a 54.4% chance Buford and St. Pius X will play a rematch of last year’s championship game in the semifinals.
Most Common Matchups:
Semifinals
Washington County – Ringgold, 592,334 times
Buford – St. Pius X, 544,173 time
Final
Buford – Washington County, 809,119 times
Team Rank Rating Draw Depth Wins
Buford 1 99.19 69.52 4.65 712,324
Washington County 2 90.04 74.56 4.02 271,846
Blessed Trinity 5 68.05 81.89 2.2 5,483
St. Pius X 4 68.25 83.28 2.59 5,145
Callaway 6 65.05 84.35 2.47 2,609
Ringgold 9 60.07 78.97 2.72 1,878
Carver (Columbus) 10 57.96 87.28 2.02 362
Central (Carrollton) 14 54.29 79.83 2.35 353
Region Wins
7 – AAA 712,324
3 – AAA 271,846
6 – AAA 10,628
4 – AAA 2,962
5 – AAA 1,878
2 – AAA 362
AA
- Due to their superior rating and an easy draw, Lovett continues to march along as the heavy favorite in AA, winning the simulation 62.0% of the time.
- Amazingly, all eight regions are still represented.
- There is an 8.6% chance Calhoun and Jefferson will play a rematch of last year’s championship game in the semifinals.
Most Common Matchups:
Semifinals
Lovett – Brooks County, 595,847 times
Benedictine – Lamar County, 441,669 times
Final
Lovett – Lamar County, 323,523 times
Team Rank Rating Draw Depth Wins
Lovett 1 81.89 61.7 4.4 620,231
Lamar County 4 71.4 69.59 3.32 130,230
Benedictine 2 72.8 73.24 2.98 117,688
Calhoun 3 72.09 73.57 2.81 91,760
Brooks County 6 60.9 66.91 2.76 24,043
Bowdon 9 56.34 69.35 2.41 6,856
Jefferson 7 58.02 74.05 2.23 5,299
Laney 10 54.31 70.89 2.1 3,893
Region Wins
6 – AA 620,231
4 – AA 130,230
2 – AA 117,688
7 – AA 91,760
1 – AA 24,043
5 – AA 6,856
8 – AA 5,299
3 – AA 3,893
A-Public
- Although Seminole County still leads the simulation with a 30.9% chance of winning the championship, the Class A Public bracket has the most parity of all the GHSA playoff brackets.  All of the remaining teams have a greater than 1% chance and four teams have better than 6 to 1 odds.
- Region 2 and Region 4 each have three teams left and respectively have a 44.0% and 30.9% chance of boasting the eventual winner.
Most Common Matchups:
Semifinals
Seminole County – Irwin County, 560,498 times
Clinch County – Marion County, 465,011 times
Final
Seminole County – Clinch County, 207,522 times
Team Rank Rating Draw Depth Wins
Seminole County 3 46.65 39.3 2.55 309,442
Clinch County 4 43.53 39.45 2.36 214,020
Irwin County 6 42.53 39.31 2.28 184,157
Marion County 7 41.54 40.3 2.12 149,349
Dooly County 14 36.63 41.81 1.54 47,441
Charlton County 13 36.83 42.58 1.4 42,175
Hawkinsville 16 35.21 42.22 1.42 34,115
Johnson County 18 32.74 41.77 1.33 19,301
Region Wins
2 – A 440,352
1 – A 309,442
4 – A 230,905
3 – A 19,301
A-Private
- Still towering over the Class A Private bracket is Eagle’s Landing Christian, winning the simulation 73.0% of the time.
- Mount Pisgah Christian tops the remaining teams with a 12.5% chance of winning the title, but seven of the eight remaining team have a greater than 1% chance of winning.
- There is a 51.9% chance Eagle’s Landing Christian and Prince Avenue Christian will play a rematch of last year’s championship game in the semifinals.
Most Common Matchups:
Semifinals
Eagle’s Landing Christian – Prince Avenue Christian, 518,950 times
Mount Pisgah Christian – Mount Paran Christian, 396,506 times
Final
Eagle’s Landing Christian – Mount Pisgah Christian, 437,290 times
Team Rank Rating Draw Depth Wins
ELCA 1 64.22 42.18 3.48 730,163
Mount Pisgah 2 47.28 44.78 2.44 125,071
Prince Avenue 5 43.47 46.43 1.69 41,744
Mount Paran 9 40.73 48.18 1.74 31,207
Aquinas 11 39.42 48.62 1.71 25,826
Calvary Day 10 39.73 46.99 1.5 19,786
Darlington 8 41.19 49.86 1.14 17,642
Holy Innocents 15 35.43 50.26 1.31 8,561
Region Wins
5 – A 738,724
6 – A 173,920
8 – A 41,744
7 – A 25,826
3 – A 19,786

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